Sunday, August 7, 2011

Gold-dinar rising? A threat for the international financial system?

The war raging in Libya since February is getting progressively worse as NATO forces engage in regime change and worse, an objective to kill Muammar Gaddafi to eradicate his vision of a United Africa with a single currency backed by gold. The Libyan case is interesting as questions have arisen for months about NATO’s motivation. Why all of a sudden, this rush to destroy Gaddafi?

For some, it is about protecting civilians. “Our resolve is quick, the people of Libya must be protected”, Obama said. Others say it is about oil. “Do you think that we went to Iraq if its main exports were broccolis?” some analysts remark. But some are convinced that the intervention in Libya has been about currency… and more specifically Gaddafi’s plan to introduce the gold-dinar, a single African currency made from gold. There were two conferences on this: one in 1996 and another in 2000 called Mathaba World Conference, organized by Gaddafi. It has been reported that everybody was interested and most of the African countries were keen.

Gaddafi did not give up and a month before the intervention, he called on African and Muslim nations to join together to create this new currency that would rival the dollar and the euro. They would export oil and other resources only for gold-dinars. It is an idea that would shift the economic balance of the world. Countries’ wealth would then depend on how much gold they have, not on how many dollars they trade. And Libya has a 144-ton stock of gold. The UK has something like the double of that but 10 times more population.

This kind of move happened before when Saddam Hussein announced that the Iraqi oil would be traded in euro and no more in dollar. Sanctions and an invasion (justified with wrong proofs) followed. Similarly, an implementation of gold-dinar would have important consequences on the international financial system which is mainly based on the trust that countries have in the dollar… whose real value is probably overvalued. It would have also empowered the people of Africa. Let us remember that Gaddafi created the African Investment Bank in Sirte (Libya) and was promoting an “African Monetary Fund” (to be based in Cameroon) whose aim is to supplant the IMF and undermine Western economic hegemony in Africa. The moves are also bad for France because when the African Monetary Fund and the African Central Bank in Nigeria starts printing gold-backed currency, it would 'ring the death knell' for the CFA franc through which Paris was able to maintain its grip on 14 countries.

Collectible coins and banknotes at a number of auctions in the first half of the year did well, particularly those from the Islamic and Asian worlds, making a case for rare old money. "We have many new buyers from emerging markets," says Bonhams numismatic specialist Edouard Wyngaard. For instance, the Muamalah Council plans to implement the dinar system in Malaysia's northern state of Kelantan. If information on its website is to be believed, the council has the blessing of the state's Islamist government, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas), to kickstart the dinar in 3 moves. First, the state will pay a quarter of its public servants' salaries using the dinar. Second, all state companies will accept dinar payments. Lastly, some 600 commercial enterprises will also embrace this currency. The idea was first mooted by Malaysia's former PM, Mahathir Mohamad, in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He argued that the coins would never hang their possessor out to dry in the same way that paper money had. As precious metals with intrinsic value, gold and silver are more resistant to market fluctuations and devaluation compared to the US dollar – an argument he took to the Organisation of the Islamic Conference as a tool to battle western hegemony. Today, Islamic gold dinar advocates would cite the recent credit crunch as proof. Indeed, the rocketing price of gold – possibly transcending a record high of $2,000 an ounce – can only strengthen their pitch.

While Mahathir's grand plan for Malaysia to implement the dinar system by 2003 may have been unceremoniously scrapped by his successor, Abdullah Badawi, the idea has since gained currency beyond Malaysia's shores. In neighbouring Indonesia, for instance, an outfit known as Wakala Induk Nusantara (WIN) had begun minting Islamic gold coins for use in Australia, Malaysia and Singapore. Its spokesman, Riki Rokhman Azis, claims that the number of dinars used in the world's most populous Muslim nation has more than doubled in 2009 to 25,000 pieces. What is perhaps more striking is the UK connection to the increasingly globalised Islamic gold dinar movement. The Indonesian grouping is adhering to a fatwa issued by the South African-based cleric Sheikh Abdalqadir as-Sufi, a Muslim convert in Cape Town formerly known as Ian Dallas of Scotland. Then there is Dinar Exchange, the British equivalent of Indonesia's WIN. As the "official certified supplier of Islamic gold dinar and silver dirham in the United Kingdom", the company had just concluded a month-long series of roadshows in May that saw it promoting the gold dinar to Muslims in key UK cities such as London, Birmingham and Edinburgh.


According to the propagators of the gold-dinar, the currency is the “only credible anti-capitalist doctrine that exists today”. However, this concept has limits: like paper money, gold is also vulnerable to the manipulations of valuers. Who is to prevent gold-rich nations from banding together as a cartel to fix prices at exorbitant amounts in the same way that the oil-producing nations of OPEC did? Moreover, how many of the poor have stacks of gold already in their possession??


Billet inspired from :

- Mr. Nazry Bahwari’s very good paper in The Guardian titled “Can Malaysia's Islamic gold dinar thwart capitalism?” (2011/07/17)

Link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2010/jul/17/malaysia-gold-dinar-thwart-capitalism

- Mr. Brian E Muhammad’s article in The Southern Times titled “Africa's curse of gold and oil” (2011/08/01)

Link: http://www.southerntimesafrica.com/article.php?title=Africa's_curse_of_gold__and_oil&id=6129

Saturday, August 6, 2011

The euro area on the deck of Titanic


This week, the CAC 40 has posted a series of drop, showing levels not seen for a long time, demonstrating the failure of the new European level. And if Jacques Sapir and Emmanuel Todd, who had planned the end of the euro in late 2011, were right?


75% of the way to the explosion was done

Two figures determine the status of the situation: the rate of government bonds to ten years for Spain and Italy. A year ago, rates were below 4%. One month ago, they were less than 5% for Italy and 5.5% for Spain. The crisis of the early summer caused a further increase of one point (meaning, ultimately, a higher cost of interest on the debt of Italy equivalent to 1.2% of GDP, or about €20bn ).

The European Agreement on July 21 resulted in a slight lull but the rates have barely fallen for several days. Actually, this long crisis of the euro area looks like a gradual increase in fever, without any real drop on the thermometer. The pressure rises incrementally while the various European plans do not seem to solve anything. On Tuesday, the Spanish rate reached 6.36%, 6.16% for Italy.

Big shock in sight?

Herman Van Rompuy may well close his eyes, damages are there. And it's probably because we are in August that the media do not seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. Indeed, most analysts consider that beyond 6.5 to 7% interest rate, the European sovereign debts will be difficult to manage. Actually, Spain has suffered in one year an interest inflation equal to 2% of its GDP. It is 4% for Italy!

Of course, Spain has one of the lowest public debts among Euro countries. And Italy is partially protected by the maturity of its debt, which reduces the speed of propagation of higher rates, as well as by the fact that its debt is mostly domestic. But we are quickly approaching the alert threshold. If ever the cape of 6.5% was exceeded, the euro area could quickly enter a terminal crisis. Indeed, if this rate exceeded 7% in Italy, the situation would be completely uncontrollable. Rome’s debt is the largest in Europe (€1.9 trillion, i.e. 120% of GDP) and a new plan would commit France and Germany to disburse several hundred billion Euros, which seems highly unlikely. The only solution could be an exit from the Euro.

In late June, it seemed then that "the torment of the Euro could still go on." But this new onset of fever could lead to a rapid explosion if nothing is done.  

(Translation of Laurent Pinsolle's article published on August 4th on http://www.agoravox.fr/)

"Wall street Banks want to downgrade America from AAA to junk", Max Keiser


The US Treasury bond market will be downgraded it will no longer carry the AAA rating no matter what they decide and this is exactly what Wall Street banks want because you do not make much money trading AAA rated US government debt , there is not much money to be made , the Wall Street bankers want the US debt downgraded to Junk status because they can make a lot more money trading junk. 

Friday, August 5, 2011

'Egypt faces less democracy after fake revolt', William Engdahl


William Engdahl talks on Russia TV - on August 3, 2011 - about Egyptians revolutionary events, and the illusion of democracy. The U.S. would be behind this macabre scenario which does not bode well for those who believe in something better and for the Egyptian people.

Summarizing Italy's Catastrophic Predicament In 15 Simple Bullet Points

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2011 on http://www.zerohedge.com/

The irony about the blow up over the past month in "all things Italian" is that the facts about its sovereign debt and viability profile have always been available for anyone to not only see, but make the conclusion that the situation is unsustainable. The fact that so few dared to do so only confirms that affirmative confirmation bias that dominates within 99% of the investing population. Sites such as Zero Hedge and others had been warning for over a year that the Italian "contagion" (which is a misnomer: Italy's lack of viability is perfectly-self contained: it does not need Greece or Portugal to blow up, and can do so perfectly well on its own, but the punditry certainly needs a scapegoat, in this case the incremental layering of "revelations" about how insolvent Europe is) and we have long presented primary source data confirming just how precarious the house of cards is not only in Italy but everywhere else too. Regardless, no matter how conventional wisdom got to the big picture revelation of just how ugly Italy's reality is (and don't think for a minute that Spain is any better) the truth is that the cat is not only out of the bag, but is widely rampaging through the china store (no pun intended), high on speed and methadone. So for everyone who still wishes to know why the Italian jobs is very much hopeless absent the ECB stepping in an bailout out the country, below is a succinct list of 15 bullet points courtesy of The Telegraph, which explains all there is to know about the country's current predicament. In retrospect we certainly can not blame Tremonti for wanting to get the hell out of there.

The truth about Italy:

  • Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
  • A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
  • Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said - suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
  • Italy's public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
  • Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
  • A one percentage point increase in Italy's debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
  • Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
  • The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
  • Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
  • European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy's five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
  • Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
  • JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
  • The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
  • Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks' bond issues
  • JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks' holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets - a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks' 10%

Source: Telegraph